TERI Bookstore
Print
TERI Information Digest on Energy and Environment (TIDEE)
Vol.14(4)  December 2015
Print ISSN : 0972-6721
Online ISSN : 0975-7589

Climate change: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability

Application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard-assessment and management on the state of Karnataka, India

Appelquist L R and Balstrøm T. 2015
Journal of Environmental Management 152:1-10
UNEP DTU Partnership, Technical University of Denmark, UN City Copenhagen, Marmorvej 51, 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark

The paper showcases a practical procedure for applying the Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) framework for regional hazard assessments and to develop hazard maps and hazard risk data for the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion, and flooding for the state of Karnataka, India. The application uses a GIS approach to develop regional and sub-regional hazard maps as well as to produce relevant hazard risk data and includes a discussion of uncertainties, limitations, and management perspectives. The hazard assessment shows that 61 per cent of Karnataka’s coastline has a high or very high inherent hazard of erosion, making erosion the most prevalent coastal hazard. The hazards of flooding and salt water intrusion are also relatively widespread as 39 per cent of Karnataka’s coastline has a high or very high inherent hazard for both of these hazard types. (3 figures, 2 tables, 20 references)

Impact of climate change on the severity, duration, and frequency of drought in a semi-arid agricultural basin

Atie H, Seyed Kaboli H, Zareie H, Akhondali A, and Farjad B. 2015
Geoenvironmental Disasters 2(1)
Department of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada

This study applied the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) along with a combination of General Circulation Models (GCM)-scenarios to create the severity–duration–frequency curves of drought for the period 2020–44. An average period of six months (ending in May) was used for the SPI, corresponding to the agricultural growing season of the region, to assess drought conditions under five plausible climate scenarios. The selected GCM-scenarios were GISS-ER A1B (warmer and drier), CSIROMk3.5 B1 (cooler and drier), INGV-SXG A1B (median conditions), ECHO-G A2 (warmer and wetter), and ECHAM5 B1 (cooler and wetter), and they were downscaled with an Artificial Neural Network approach. Results reveal that most scenarios exhibit an increase in the duration of extreme drought while the duration of moderate drought decreases under all scenarios. The largest increases in the frequency of extreme droughts occur in the western portion of the basin in response to the warmer and drier climate scenario. An increase in the number of extreme (SPI <–2) drought conditions with a longer duration can influence the growing season. (7 figures, 2 tables, 32 references)

Systematic review approaches for climate change adaptation research

Berrang-Ford L, Pearce T, and Ford J D. 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15(5): 755-769
Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC H3A 0B9, Canada

Systematic review approaches and more recently realist review methods have been used within the health sciences for decades to guide research synthesis. Despite this, penetration of these approaches into the social and environmental sciences has been limited. The paper presents an analysis of approaches for systematic review and research synthesis and examines their applicability in an adaptation context. Customized review frameworks informed by systematic approaches to research synthesis provide a conceptually appropriate and practical opportunity for increasing methodological transparency and rigour in synthesizing and tracking adaptation research. The paper highlights innovative applications of systematic approaches, with a focus on the unique challenges of integrating multiple data sources and formats in reviewing climate change adaptation policy and practice. The authors present guidelines, key considerations, and recommendations for systematic review in the social sciences in general and adaptation research in particular. The authors conclude by calling for increased conceptual and methodological development of systematic review approaches to address the methodological challenges of synthesizing and tracking adaptation to climate change. (2 tables, 99 references)

Review of key initiatives and approaches to adaptation planning at the national level in semi-arid areas

Bizikova L, Parry J-E, Karami J, and Echeverria D. 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15(5):837-850
International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), 75 Albert Street, Suite 903, Ottawa, ON K1P 5E7, Canada

Semi-arid areas are found in a large number of countries and regions of Africa and South and Central Asia. They display high vulnerability to climate change with considerable adaptation needs. In this paper, the authors review country-level and multi-country projects supported by international agencies. The authors examine the priorities and goals presented in national adaptation planning documents and in sectorial planning documents. Through this analysis, the authors seek to compare adaptation needs with current trends in national, regional, and global projects and collaborations. The results suggest that initiatives supported by international agencies play a considerable role in achieving national adaptation priorities, especially in areas such as agriculture and water management. However, compared with specific adaptation options such as drought-resistant species and irrigation (which tend to be the scope of the projects), the analysed documents tend to see challenges in agriculture more in the contexts of food security, livestock, and rural development. They emphasize the strong connection between rural livelihoods and sustainable land and ecosystem management. Priorities listed in the national documents but not captured in current initiatives include human health, pastoralism, security, and migration. The results also show high levels of mainstreaming adaptation into sectorial planning documents, especially those on poverty reduction; however, compared with the focus on the project level, they here emphasize adaptations focused on institutional development and governance. Finally, the outcomes indicate that global, regional, and national initiatives are distributed unequally and that countries in Central and West Africa and Central Asia currently exhibit low participation, especially in national projects. (35 tables, 37 references)

Multi annual variations in winter westerly disturbance activity affecting the Himalaya

Cannon F, Carvalho L M V, Jones C, and Bookhagen B. 2015
Climate Dynamics 44(1-2):441-455
Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA

Winter westerly disturbances (WWD) are the primary climatic influence within High Mountain Asia during the boreal winter. The authors investigate variations and changes in WWD over the period 1979–2010 and relationships with heavy (85th percentile) precipitation in the Karakoram/western Himalaya and central Himalaya using multiple datasets. The authors show that heavy precipitation events occurring in Karakoram/western and central Himalaya are often spatiotemporally independent, suggesting differing behaviour of WWD affecting each region. The analysis exhibits an enhancement in the strength and frequency of WWD in the Karakoram/western Himalaya and indicates an increase in local heavy precipitation events. In contrast, the CH is observed to experience weakening influence of these disturbances, and consequently, a decrease in heavy precipitation. Furthermore, the authors investigate multi-annual variability of  WWD and tele-connections with some known modes of climate variability affecting central Asia, including the Arctic Oscillation, Eurasian/Polar Pattern, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Siberian High. Although there is clear evidence that these modes affect circulation and precipitation in High Mountain Asia, their competing influences on WWD are complex and non-linear. These results suggest that a thorough understanding of WWD and their spatiotemporal variations are crucial to improve the knowledge of the hydrologic cycle within High Mountain Asia as well as the ability to project the future status of Asia’s water resources. (13 figures, 44 references)

The status of climate change adaptation in Africa and Asia

Ford J D, Berrang-Ford L, Bunce A, McKay C, Irwin M, and Pearce T. 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15(5): 801-814
Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Canada

Adaptation is a key component of climate policy, yet there is limited and fragmented understanding of if and how adaptation is currently taking place. In this paper, the authors document and characterize the current status of adaptation in 47 vulnerable ‘hotspot’ nations in Asia and Africa, based on a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature, as well as policy documents, to extract evidence of adaptation initiatives. In total, 100 peer-reviewed articles, 161 grey literature documents, and 27 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications were reviewed, constituting 760 adaptation initiatives. Results indicate a significant increase in reported adaptations since 2006. Adaptations are primarily being reported from African and low-income countries, particularly those nations receiving adaptation funds; involve a combination of groundwork and more concrete adaptations to reduce vulnerability; and are primarily being driven by national governments, NGOs, and international institutions, with minimal involvement of lower levels of government or collaboration across nations. Gaps in the knowledge of adaptation policy and practice are particularly notable in North Africa and Central Asia, and there is limited evidence of adaptation initiatives being targeted at vulnerable populations including socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, children, indigenous peoples, and the elderly. (2 figures, 2 tables, 65 references)

Assessing land-use changes driven by river dynamics in chronically flood affected Upper Brahmaputra plains, India, using RS-GIS techniques

Hazarika N, Das A K, and Borah S B. 2015
The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science 18(1):107-118
School of Sciences, Department of Environmental Science, Tezpur University, Tezpur-784 028, Assam, India

The study documents land-use changes driven by river dynamics along two tributaries in the chronically flood-affected Upper Brahmaputra floodplain, which supports a population of more than half a million. Planform changes for a period of 40 years are documented using topographical map and Landsat data, and the associated land-use change is assessed by utilizing hybrid classification in GIS environment. Quantification of bankline migration shows that the river courses are unstable. A reversal in the rate of erosion and deposition is also observed. Hybrid classification of Landsat images yielded a higher level of accuracy as evident from the confusion matrixes. Overall, the accuracy of land-use classification ranged between 88.5 per cent and 96.25 per cent. Land-use change shows that there is an increase in settlement and agriculture and a decrease in the grassland. Effect of river dynamics on settlements is also evident. Loss of agricultural land and homestead led to the loss of livelihood and internal migration in the floodplains. The observed pattern of river dynamics and the consequent land-use change in the recent decades have thrown newer environmental challenges at a pace and magnitude way beyond the coping capabilities of the dwellers. (8 figures, 3 tables, 52 references)

Comparison of temperature lapse rates from the northern to the southern slopes of the Himalaya

Kattel D B, Yao T, Yang W, Gao Y and Tian L. 2015
International Journal of Climatology 5: 4431–4443
Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Process, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Based on 20-year (1985–2004) records of surface-air-temperature at 16 stations in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (or the northern slopes of the eastern Himalayas), this paper examines the monthly, seasonal and annual characteristics of near-surface temperature lapse rates (TLRs). A linear regression model was spotted for the lapse rate calculation. The annual cycle of the TLR shows a distinct seasonal pattern, i.e., steepest in winter and shallowest in summer. Results are partially consistent with those from the southern slopes of the central Himalayas, in particular in summer, and correspond to the warm, rainy and humid season. In response to the monsoonal effect, the released latent heat of water vapour condensation causes an increase in air temperature at higher elevations. Therefore, the TLR is shallowest in the summer. The considerable amount of solar radiation at higher elevations also causes a reduction of the TLR in this season. The lowest diurnal range of lapse rates for summer is associated with lower diurnal variability in net radiation due to cloud cover and relative humidity. The steepest TLR occurs in winter in association with intense cooling at higher elevations, corresponding to the continental dry and cold air surges, and considerable snow-temperature feedback. Lower insolation, deeper snow cover and a weaker inversion effect cause a lower diurnal range of TLR in this season. The observed contrast of winter TLR from the northern to southern slopes of the Himalayas is due to differences in elevation and topography, as well as the pronounced effect of cold air surges. (7 figures, 2 tables, 56 references)

A review of the biophysical impacts of climate change in three hotspot regions in Africa and Asia

Kilroy G. 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15(5):771-782
Department of Geology, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland

A systematic review was conducted of biological and physical climate change impacts in three hotspot regions in Africa and Asia. Specifically, the review focused on identifying the nature and extent of biophysical impacts in semi-arid zones, mega-deltas, and glacial-fed river basins. In total 139 articles were peer-reviewed, with a steady increase in relevant articles reported since 2006. Publications on the South Asian glacial-fed river basins were most numerous followed by semi-arid areas and then deltas with Central Asia and some African countries being most under represented. The nature and extent of impacts varied for each hotspot area and were largely determined by geographical context and intrinsic characteristics of each region. River basin publications were dominated by impacts concerning hydrology, highlighting the importance of glacial-fed water resources to downstream populations. Semi-arid regions were dominated by impacts to climate processes and impacts to livestock and vegetation highlighting the importance of rainfall to the ecosystems and the livelihoods of communities in these regions. (2 figures, 4 tables, 109 references)

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

Labriet M, Joshi S R, Vielle M, Holden P B, Edwards N R, Kanudia A, Loulou R, and Babonneau F. 2015
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 20(7):1111-1136
Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, Madrid, Spain

The general objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of variations in heating and cooling of buildings due to future temperature changes, considering multi-model approach allowing a consistent analysis of the linkage between climate, energy, and macro-economic dynamics. The first specific objective concerns the analysis of energy and technology decisions resulting from these changes at global and regional levels, taking a systems perspective that accounts for impacts on the entire energy system and resulting substitution effects. Second specific objective is assessment of possible feedbacks on the climate system of changes in emissions from the energy system. Third objective is to study both direct and indirect macro-economic impacts, including possible rebound effects resulting from a decrease of energy costs for households. (14 figures, 5 tables, 46 references)

A modelling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

Leng G, Huang M, Tang Q, and Leung L R. 2015
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 7(3):1285-1304
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA

The study investigates the effects of irrigation on global water resources by performing and analysing Community Land Model 4.0 simulations driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were performed: (i) a CTRL experiment in which all crops are assumed to be rain fed; (ii) an IRRIG experiment in which the irrigation module is activated using surface water (SW) to feed irrigation; and (iii) a PUMP experiment in which a groundwater (GW) pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and GW pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based water use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization. The results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major effects: SW (GW) depletion in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW (GW), respectively. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting increased vulnerability to drought. By the end of the twenty-first century, combined effect of increased irrigation water demand and amplified temporal-spatial variability of water supply may lead to severe local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our study highlights the need to account for irrigation effects and sources in assessing regional climate change impacts. (12 figures, 4 tables, 77 references)

A systematic review of research on climate change adaptation policy and practice in Africa and South Asia deltas

Lwasa S. 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15(5):815-824
School of Forestry, Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Arts Building, East Wing Ground Floor Room 12, Kampala, Uganda

Peer-reviewed literature, governmental communiqués, and reports are increasingly reporting formulated and implemented climate change adaptation policies, strategies, and plans of action. A large part of this literature describes general policy strategies, while there is limited published work on adaptation interventions at the local scale. The generality of adaptation is not only limited to strategies but also in terms of coverage of regions believed to be highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Among such climate change “hotspots” where understanding on adaptation is limited are river deltas. This paper synthesizes selected literature on adaptation policy and practice in river deltas located in Africa and South Asia. A systematic review methodology was used to  scan online knowledge portals for published papers and also unpublished government documents. The review characterizes the state of adaptation policy in African and South Asian deltas and identifies future research priorities targeting climate change adaptation in large delta regions. (2 figures, 2 tables, 64 references)

Community perceptions and responses to climate variability and change in the Himalayas

Macchi M, Gurung A M, and Hoermann B. 2015
Climate and Development 7(5):414-425
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal

Himalayan communities live in marginal environments. They are dependent on ecosystem services and thus highly exposed to climate variability and change. This study aimed to help understand how mountain communities perceive change, how change impacts their livelihoods, and how they respond to change. Forty focus group discussions and 144 in-depth interviews at the household level were conducted in 20 villages in northwest India and across Nepal. Perceptions of change were compared with actual climate records where available. Respondents considered rainfall patterns to be less predictable and had experienced an overall reduction in water availability, severely affecting their harvests. Increased temperatures were also reported, particularly at higher elevations. People responded to the changing conditions with a wide range of coping and adaptation mechanisms. However, many of these mechanisms will not be sustainable in view of the likely magnitude of future climate change, and they are also restricted to social groups with appropriate assets. The poor, lower caste families, women, and other marginalized groups are particularly vulnerable and less able to adapt. Targeted efforts are required to move from coping to adapting and to avoid inequalities between social groups increasing due to the different adaptive capacities. (2 figures, 3 tables, 45 references)

Climatic and anthropogenic factors changing spawning pattern and production zone of Hilsa fishery in the Bay of Bengal

Miah M S. 2015
Weather and Climate Extremes 7:109-115
College of Agricultural Sciences IUBAT-International University of Business Agriculture and Technology, 4 Embankment Drive Road, Uttara Model Town, Sector 10, Dhaka 1230, Bangladesh

The marine fisheries provide a livelihood for millions of people in the Bay of Bengal region but the coral reefs are quite limited in the region due to high river discharge and turbidity. Alteration of marine ecosystem due to climate change has direct and indirect adverse effect on fish flora for their reproduction, migration, and survival. The global Hilsa catch is reported 75 per cent from Bangladesh water, 15 per cent from Myanmar, 5 per cent from India, and 5 per cent from other countries such as Thailand and Iran. Hilsa is a highly migratory and anadromous fish with the same migratory and same breeding behaviour as that of Atlantic salmon. Due to various anthropogenic activities, climate change effect, increased siltation, and rising of the river basins, the migratory routes as well as spawning grounds of Hilsa are disturbed, displaced, or even destroyed. During last two decades Hilsa production from inland water declined about 20 per cent, whereas marine water yield increased about three times. Major Hilsa to catch has gradually shifted from inland to marine water. Long-term research on impact of climate change on marine resources involving the common ecological conditions needs to be implemented in the Asia Pacific region. (8 figures, 24 references)

Increasing temperature causes flowering onset time changes of alpine ginger Roscoea in the Central Himalayas

Mohandass D, Zhao J-L, Xia Y-M, Campbell M J, and Li Q-J. 2015
Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity 8(3):191-198
Key Laboratory of Tropical Forest Ecology, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun Town, Mengla County, Yunnan, PR China

The authors investigate how the flowering phenology of three alpine ginger Roscoea species responses to climate change over the century from 1913 to 2011 by comparing herbarium-based phenology records and direct flowering observations. According to the observations, flowering onset of the three alpine ginger species occurred either 22 days earlier or was delayed by 8–30 days when comparing the mean peak flowering date between herbarium-based phenology records and direct flowering observations. It is likely that this significant change in flowering onset is due to increased annual minimum and maximum temperatures and mean annual temperature by about 0.053°C per year. Results also show that flowering time changes occurred due to an increasing winter-spring minimum temperature and monsoon minimum temperature, suggesting that these Roscoea species respond greatly to climate warming resulting in changes on flowering times. (11 figures, 4 tables, 43 references)

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: Implications for water management in India

Mondal A and Mujumdari P P. 2015
Hydrological Sciences and Water Security: Past, Present and Future 366:34-43
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru-560 012, Karnataka, India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands, and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India. (5 figures, 1 table, 15 references)

Theorizing climate change, (im)mobility and socio-ecological systems resilience in low-elevation coastal zones

Murphy D W A. 2015
Climate and Development 7(4):380-397
Department of Development, School of Oriental and African Studies, London, UK

This paper draws on recent theory and empirical research to explore how mobility is and might be employed by populations vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It examines case studies in Bangladesh and Kiribati to illustrate the implications of differential processes of change, types of mobility, challenges, and responses in low-elevation coastal zones. The household-level analysis yields a complex picture of how (im)mobility interacts with vulnerability to environmental change.A resilience approach is subsequently adopted to argue that an understanding of socio-ecological systems offers a useful means of apprehending and exploring the complexity inherent in the climate change-mobility nexus. (2 figures, 163 references)

Rural entrepreneurism and developmental outcomes under climate change threats

Ranjan R. 2015
Climate and Development 7(4):353-366
Department of Environment and Geography, Faculty of Science, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia

Rural entrepreneurship is often promoted as an effective tool with which to confront developmental challenges in rural communities. An important question that has not been considered thus far is how climate change-induced water scarcity in agriculture may promote or hinder rural entrepreneurship. In this paper, a model is developed to explore the conditions under which rural enterprise may or may not be undertaken by farmers struggling to adapt to climate change-related water scarcity. The results derived here highlight the potential inter-generational trade-offs climate change could create in the pathways towards promoting developmental goals through rural enterprise. When farmers take on entrepreneurial activity, it also affects human capital accumulation capability of their future generations through affecting their educational efforts. The risk of future reduction in rainfall availability makes the decision over whether or not to avail of the entrepreneurial opportunity challenging. Such risks may force less efficient farmers into taking to enterprise early on, thereby leading to suboptimal outcomes. However, several situations emerge under which, despite the lure of higher expected profits, farmers may not avail of an entrepreneurial opportunity or may delay it. (7 figures, 22 references)

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Rashid I, Romshoo S A, Chaturvedi R K, Ravindranath N H, Sukumar R, Jayaraman M, Lakshmi T V, and Sharma J. 2015
Climatic Change 132(4):601-613
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India

In this study, the authors have mapped current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5, and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The distribution of vegetation under changing climate was simulated for the twenty-first century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960–90) showed 87.15 per cent agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest, and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity, and biodiversity in the region. (3 figures, 3 tables, 59 references)

Land use/cover change using remote sensing and GIS techniques: A case study of Hawalbagh block, district Almora, Uttarakhand, India

Rawat J S and Kumar M. 2015
The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science 18(1):77-84
Centre of Excellence for NRDMS in Uttarakhand, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, SSJ Campus, Almora-263601, Uttarakhand, India

The study illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use/cover of Hawalbagh block of district Almora, Uttarakhand, India. Landsat satellite imageries of two different time periods, that is, Landsat Thematic Mapper of 1990 and 2010 were acquired by Global Land Cover Facility Site and earth explorer site and quantify the changes in the Hawalbagh block from 1990 to 2010 over a period of 20 years. Supervised classification methodology has been employed using maximum likelihood technique in ERDAS 9.3 Software. The images of the study area were categorized into five different classes namely vegetation, agriculture, barren, built-up, and water body. The results indicate that during the last two decades, vegetation and built-up land have been increased by 3.51 per cent (9.39 km2) and 3.55 per cent (9.48 km2) while agriculture, barren land, and water body have decreased by 1.52 per cent (4.06 km2), 5.46 per cent (14.59 km2), and 0.08 per cent (0.22 km2), respectively. The paper highlights the importance of digital change detection techniques for nature and location of change of the Hawalbagh block. (4 figures, 2 tables, 38 references)

Resilience projects as experiments: Implementing climate change resilience in Asian cities

Reed S O, Friend R, Jarvie J, Henceroth J, Thinphanga P, Singh D, Tran P, and Sutarto R. 2015
Climate and Development 7(5):469-480
Institute for Social and Environmental Transition - International, No.18, Alley 1/42, Lane 1 Au Co, Tay Ho, Hanoi, Vietnam

The capacity of actors and institutions to learn and reorganize is central to the resilience of complex systems, particularly in the context of rapidly urbanizing cities. A process of qualitative, reflective research among practitioners within the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network showed that development projects and programmes can contribute meaningfully to this capacity when they introduce projects as ‘experiments’. While projects did provide desired tangible benefits to certain groups of actors, many of the most significant contributions to resilience were related to knowledge, networks, information, and greater engagement of citizens with the state. This emphasis on the capacity to learn and reorganize provides a counterpoint to ideas around ‘implementation’ and ‘mainstreaming’ normally promoted within climate change adaptation practice—and, importantly, can help enrich these practices to maximize their effectiveness. This paper focusses on international development projects in particular, although findings have implications for other types of adaptation and resilience initiatives supported by governments, private sector, or community-based organizations. (63 references)

Climate and health in informal urban settlements

Scovronick N, Lloyd S J, and Kovats R S. 2015
Environment & Urbanization 27(2):657-678
Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK

Urban population living in informal settlements are inherently vulnerable to climate change, as informal settlements are characterized by overcrowding, poor-quality housing, lack of basic infrastructure, and poverty. Nevertheless, evidence of associations among weather or climate and health in these populations is lacking, which severely constrains the design of climate change and disaster risk reduction adaptation strategies. To help fill this gap, this paper is a guide for researchers working on climate and health in informal settlements that summarizes key epidemiological methods and study designs commonly used in environmental health research. The authors focus on designs that have modest data requirements and that have been used successfully in resource-poor settings. The final section of the paper gives an overview of the current state of evidence about climate change and weather hazards in urban areas, as this is one of the main concerns for policymakers. (3 figures, 7 tables, 49 references)

Assessing economic impacts of climate change and adaptation in Indo-Gangetic Basin

Singh H, Subash N, Gangwar B, Valdivia R, Antle J, and Baigorria G. 2015
Procedia Environmental Sciences 29:229-230
ICAR-Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research, Modipuram-250 110, Uttar Pradesh, India

The Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) is characterized by cereal-based farming systems. Cereal crops (mainly rice and wheat) are crucial to ensuring food security in the region, but sustaining their productivity has become a major challenge due to climate variability and uncertainty. This paper uses an integrated climate–crop–economic modelling framework, using AgMIP protocols, to make an integrated assessment of climate change and adaptation strategy for rice–wheat growing farms of Meerut district (in Uttar Pradesh) in the IGB. This framework enables integration of location- and farm-specific climate and crop modelling output for assessing economic impact on the farming systems using trade-off analysis model. The assessment clearly shows likely impact of climate change on agricultural production systems and how adaptation strategies can reduce climate change vulnerabilities. (3 references)

Adaptation policy and practice in densely populated glacier-fed river basins of South Asia: A systematic review

Sud R, Mishra A, Varma N, and Bhadwal S. 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15(5):  825-836
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), IHC Complex, Lodhi Road, New Delhi-110 003, India

Rivers are the cultural, social, and economic backbone of South Asia, and therefore, the focus of public, political, and scientific debate. Himalayan glaciers are the source of numerous large Asian river systems, which support rich ecosystems and irrigate millions of hectares of fields, thereby supporting about a billion people who live in their catchments. Impacts of climate change in river systems are likely to have considerable social, economic, ecological, and political implications. This paper reviews literature for three major glacier-fed river systems of South Asia—Brahmaputra, Ganga, and Indus—to understand governance mechanisms for climate adaptation in the region. A systematic review methodology is applied to examine adaptation responses in the riparian countries of these Himalayan river basins in three different levels—policy objectives, institutions, and practice. Using the ‘‘fit for purpose’ governance framework, the authors try to examine how far or near is the region for operationalizing principles of adaptive governance. (3 figures, 6 tables, 68 references)

Farmers’ perception of and adaptation to climate change impacts in the Dry Zone of Myanmar

Swe L M M, Shrestha R P, Ebbers T, and Jourdain D. 2015
Climate and Development 7(5):437-453
Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand

In Myanmar, impacts of climate change have been apparent since 1977. Myanmar’s economy, which exclusively depends on agriculture, is increasingly at risk due to climate change. Since farmers are often the first to confront climate change, they must adapt to new climatic conditions. Local adaptation practices, the possible starting points in developing new adaptation strategies, are currently occurring at a local scale, particularly based on the traditional knowledge. The authors used household survey, participatory histogram mapping, and key-informant interviews to explore the farmers’ perception and adaptation practices to climate change in the Myanmar Dry Zone. Ninety per cent respondents perceived the changing climatic patterns in the Dry Zone, while increasing temperature and erratic rainfall patterns were perceived as the predominant changes by 85 per cent of the people. The farmers also perceived that there have already been several impacts of climate changes on agriculture. The common sesame/groundnut cropping pattern has been abandoned by the Dry Zone farmers in recent decades due to climate change-driven agricultural production barriers. Farmers have been dealing with those barriers using their conventional agricultural practices, for example, rainwater collection, tube wells, and water harvesting techniques. They have also been using the traditional weather forecasting techniques to predict weather. Consequently, the study underlines the need to document existing agricultural practices that can prove to be successful adaptation measures, and it points out the crucial role of the extension strategy in disseminating agricultural techniques and weather information to support farmers to further adapt to climate change impacts. (11 figures, 7 tables, 38 references)

Changing land use and water management in a Ladakhi village of northern India

Takeda S and Yamaguchi T. 2015
Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia 5:60-66
Graduate School of Asian and African Area Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan

Domkhar valley in lower Ladakh has a total population of 1,269 people and 193 households and is divided into three villages based on their locations. There is a hamlet called Kuramric at the highest point of the upper village at 4,100 metre. The villagers release their livestock in the pastures in the U-shaped valley located above Kuramric. Barley is the main crop cultivated in all three villages. Wheat can be cultivated in the lower and middle villages, but not in the upper village. The study elucidated the change in land use and water management based on map of irrigation canals, land ownership, and usage along with the interviews and on-site observations. For more than 30 years, Ladakhi people has been receiving government rations of cheap flour, rice, sugar, and petroleum in Ladakh where the Sino-Indian Border Conflict and the Indo-Pakistani War were fought. For this reason, their staple food has switched from barley to the rationed flour. The change in the livelihood of agro-pastoralism has brought about changes in the land use, but even in this case, the temperature constraint from the difference in altitude remains a major defining factor in the selection and introduction of cash crops. (1 figure, 8 references)

The role of land surface schemes in the regional climate model (RegCM) for seasonal scale simulations over Western Himalaya

Tiwari P R, Kar S C, Mohanty U C, Dey S, Sinha P, Raju P V S, and Shekhar M S. 2015
Atmósfera 28(2):129-142
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India

The main objective of the study is to evaluate the performance of two land surface parameterization schemes (LSPS), the Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme, and the Common Land Model in the Regional Climate Model to simulate winter precipitation and temperature over the Western Himalaya. The authors provide a brief description of the model used, including characteristics and methodology of the simulation. The paper describes the results and discusses the sensitivity experiments with two LSPS. Overall, results suggest that the performance of the RegCM coupled with the Common Land Model scheme improves the model skill in predicting winter precipitation and temperature over the Western Himalaya. (8 figures, 4 tables, 24 references)

Social vulnerability in three high-poverty climate change hot spots: What does the climate change literature tell us?

Tucker J, Daoud M, Oates N, Few R, Conway D, Mtisi S, and Matheson S. 2015
Regional Environmental Change 15(5):783-800
Overseas Development Institute, 203 Blackfriars Road, London SE1 8NJ, UK

This paper reviews the state of knowledge on social vulnerability to climate change in three hot spots (deltas, semi-arid regions, and snowpack or glacier-fed river basins) in Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia using elements of systematic review methods. Social vulnerability is defined as a dynamic state of societies comprising exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The authors examine whether the hot spots have specific characteristics that tend to increase or decrease social vulnerability, consider suitable scales of analysis for understanding vulnerability, and explore the conceptions of vulnerability adopted in the climate change literature and the nature of the insights this generates. Finally, the authors identify knowledge gaps in this literature. All three hot spots are characterized by high levels of natural resource dependence, with increasing environmental degradation. (1 table, 114 references)

Disaster risk reduction knowledge of local people in Nepal

Tuladhar G, Yatabe R, Dahal R K, and Bhandary N P. 2015
Geoenvironmental Disasters 2(1)
Himalaya Conservation Group, Kathmandu, Nepal

The work presented in this paper explores local people’s knowledge on disaster risk reduction. Altogether, 124 local people from 18 to 74 years of age from randomly selected 19 districts of Nepal were interviewed focusing on various questions on disaster information, disaster knowledge, disaster readiness, disaster awareness, disaster adaptation, and disaster risk perception. The collected response data were statistically analysed using histogram and independent sample t-tests to examine the disaster risk reduction knowledge of people. An independent t-test analysis suggests that there is no statistically significant gender-based difference in disaster knowledge, disaster readiness, disaster awareness, and disaster risk perception of the surveyed people. Disaster adaptation capacity of the local people was evaluated and more than 60 per cent of the respondents were determined to adapt state of disaster in the community. (9 figures, 1 table, 35 references)